When it was announced before the start of the 2012 MLS season that there would be an unbalanced schedule, it was met with a mix of adulation and disparagement. After all, it was said the unbalanced schedule would be the death of the Supporter’s Shield. The marker of success in MLS, at least to supporters, had recently become more about who won the Supporter’s Shield than who won the MLS Cup, but with the lopsided schedule this would be no more.

The complaint early on was that the Western Conference, home to 8 of the last 10 MLS Cup Champions, would be heavily stacked. In the early goings, most thought the Los Angeles Galaxy, Seattle Sounders and Real Salt Lake were the best teams in the league – by far. From there, analysts thought the Colorado Rapids, Vancouver Whitecaps and Portland Timbers would all excel this season. In fact, of the early season favorites, only Sporting Kansas City and the Houston Dynamo (a team only moved from the West to the East in the 2011 season) were listed. When Real Salt Lake’s manger Jason Kreis said “To be very honest, [the Supporter’s Shield] has lost all appeal to me,” the devaluing of the Supporter’s Shield was linked to the unbalanced schedule. This seemed somewhat ironic as more Supporter’s Shields have been awarded to teams playing unbalanced schedules as opposed to the home-and-away schedule.

Still, many forecasters diminished it. They figured that Sporting Kansas City would run away with the East. They thought that since the majority of their games were against the much weaker East they could run away with the Shield as they would only have to play nine games against the supposedly much stronger West. Meanwhile, poor old LA, Seattle and RSL would be struggling in earnest to grind out points against each other. It was also predicted that the Western Conference would dominate the Eastern Conference in head-to-head matchups.

But there is a reason why we play the season.

In head-to-head matchups as of the end of gameplay on June 30^th, the Western Conference does have an advantage on the East, but it is not the dominance that everyone had assumed it would be.

The numbers are close, much closer, than anyone imagined. The disparity between Eastern and Western victories over each other is only two. The goal differential in these games is just a measly plus three, in favor of the West. Breaking it down by month, the strengthening of the East over the course of this season becomes clear – especially when judging by goal differential.

The months with the most head-to-head matchups were March and May. In March with 20 inter-conference games, the West had a better record. Their winning percentage was .550 and a plus nine goal differential. In May, there were far more draws between the two. But the Eastern wins, including a 4-1 New England thrashing of Vancouver, led to a plus 6 goal differential for the East. That said, in the month of May, where the East had the better goal differential, their overall winning percentage was only .208. So in each Conference’s dominant month over the other conference there is a disparity. Yet looking at overall percentages it becomes clearer.

When a relatively mediocre team like New England only has one loss against the West (a very close 1-0 to San Jose at that), while also having two relatively dominant performances over early season league front-runners (4-1 against Vancouver and 3-1 at Los Angeles) it illustrates the true parity at play in the league – and perhaps the underrating of some teams.It would appear that, once again, the East and West are virtually indistinguishable from each other. The fact is, the East and the West are much closer than everyone originally thought they’d be. It goes back to that old word that MLS tells us of repeatedly: parity.

Honestly, no one saw D.C. United doing this well in the East or holding their head above water with the West (18-10-5 overall, 2-2-2 against the West with a plus one goal differential); just as no one realized what would happen to Los Angeles (17-6-9 overall, 1-4-1 against the East with a negative three goal differential).

This is what MLS is. And this is good for the league. A stronger East, means a stronger West, means a stronger league. And maybe, just maybe, if the results of East versus West in head-to-heads holds up, then perhaps the Supporter’s Shield will still be a valuable commodity when looking at the overall quality of a team.